Saturday, November 28, 2009

Oracle of 2010 Disaster

President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party have frustrated progressive activists through their failure to live up to campaign promises and their tendency to court the right, while ignoring the people responsible for their election by opening out hearts, our bank accounts, and our labor to them.  I had thought that the frustration was limited to activists who follow political developments closely, but the problem is worse than I imagined.

apathy ...But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14

Independent Voters: 65/23


Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans… [emphasis original]

Inserted from <Daily Kos>

If Democrats do not turn out in high numbers, the GOP will make significant gains in 2010.  Change in America is a two step process.  First, we need to get rid of the alligators (Republican).  Then we need to drain the swamp (DINOs).  As frustrated as I am, there can be zero chance for progress if the alligators are reestablished.  There is time to turn this trend around but only if Obama and the Democrats stop acting like Republicans, so we need to hold their feet to the fire.  Our one saving grace here is that the Republicans are marginalizing themselves to such a great extent, that they’re likely to drive most independents away.


the walking man said...

I haven't skipped any vote since I was 18 years old but I am going back to my independent roots. I will not lock step with any party that refuses to rule the roost they have been given nor a leader of that party that refuses to opt in the mandate he was given to bring to fruition.

Jo said...

As a Canadian, I sit here across the border, watching the wonderful reality theater known as American politics. Because I am removed, and not invested of the outcome, I can see into the future. You may remember I prediced this would happen if you folks elected Obama. I lost a lot of friends, and made a lot of enemies with my predictions. Sadly.

If something seems too good to be true, it usually is. Everyone was impressed with Obama and his speechifying, but at the end of the day, he didn't really say anything. He was all about the rhetoric and not about the substance. Sometimes "still waters run deep" is more effective. I had the very strong feeling that Obama was more interested in "being elected President" than actualy being the President. And at that point, almost anyone running on the Democratic ticket would have beat the Republicans.

I have another prediction that I know everyone will ignore -- again. If you folks are not careful, you are going to end up with Sarah Palin as your next President. She is sneaking up on you, quietly, as you sleep. I cannot think of a worse scenario. I can also see how it can be entirely possible.

Tom, as much as you and I disagree on the finer points, have I been wrong yet?

Kevin Kelley said...

I fear that the Republicans will make some gains in 2010, but what I am really worried about is if Republicans are elected, they will try to please the right-wing base and please all those 9-12ers and teabaggers by pushing even more conservative legislation then the populace wants.

Democrats need to find the organization that Republicans have and solidify. Every "conservative" I talk to speaks so fervently about ousting Obama and the Democrats. I talk to any "liberal" and they dismiss that the right is organizing and gaining momentum, and although they are upset with some of Obama's decisions and policies, they are complacent.

When I ask my "liberal" friends about what they have heard circulating in the right-wing circles and what Glenn Beck is spouting, they don't know because they don't bother to watch. It is dangerous to not know your enemy and Democrats are delusional to think they can just walk right into the polling stations and take home an election without a fight...

Everyone needs to get out and vote or else we will be stuck with an ultra-conservative administration with no concern for minority rights and an extreme emphasis on religion.

TomCat said...

Mark, I understand your reasoning. If there were a progressive third party with a reasonable chance of getting people elected, I would jump. But there is not.

Josie, you're two for two. You said that Edwards was not what he appeared to be. You also said that Obama is more of a centrist than progressive, although I beat you to that one. Obama's centrist leanings are the reason I initially supported Edwards. It was my hope, however, that when he campaigned on progressive issues and made progressive promises that he would keep them.

Kevin, that's my fear, and that's why I try to educate people wherever I go, except when volunteering, as that would be unethical.

TRUTH 101 said...

Apathy is the Democrats biggest enemy. I've worked many elections and without a real compelling reason, at least thirty percent of my call lists are a real pain in the ass to get to the polls.

Republicans are above all else, loyal. As much as I make fun of them for being blind and deluded, I have to admire their loyalty. They should never win a presidential election but they do because of party loyalty.

Marva said...

It's especially sad to see that this poll was on whether or not the people will vote. No matter what we do in support of whoever, we MUST vote. That Dems are giving up like a bunch of wimps is horrible.

However, I think that even the hint of a tinge of a smell that Palin will run will re-energize the left.

Even if Obama has disappointed, Palin would be a worse disaster than Bush. Hard to believe, but it's true.

I recommend everybody read "Little Brother" by Cory Doctorow. Yeah, it's a YA (young adult) book, but you wouldn't think it from the themes. Can we count on the under 25's to rally? I hope so.

P.S., you can get the download of the book for free, so you're not even out a couple of bucks. Doctorow is an innovator in more ways than one.

Lisa G. said...

Good God, I hope this is not the case. Let the teabaggers get progressively crazy, and hopefully that will motivate the Dems. Again, I'm with Truth on this one - you have to admire their loyalty, even if they vote against their interests. It's absolutely astounding.

Sorry TC, I was cooking and familying for a couple days there. Good on you, cooking for your neighbor! I hope all had a great Thanksgiving. I spent it with my husband's family; we never have to call the police with them! Soooo much less drama than mine, but then half of them are Republicans, so we don't exactly see eye to eye.

Distributorcap said...

the more centrist obama goes, the more likely 2010 will be a democrat disaster

but obama really doesnt care. i agree with Josie - we are seeing now another man behind the curtain - lots of talk, so little action - and when he announces his troop plan on thrusday - he loses me, maybe forever

i voted socialist in the NYC mayor race - i might write you in Tom in 2012

i really didnt think i could be this disappointed this fast in obama - and i mad at myself for being sold a bridge to nowhere

TomCat said...

Truth, I've had the same experience, but why? Do you think voters would be less fickle if Democrats acted less like Republicans?

Marva,voting in an informed manner is our first duty as citizens. I haven't even had time to finish Tales yet.

Lisa, I bet you're a better cook than I am, but you're taken. {Sigh!} I think that the teabagger set overtaking the party is our ace in the hole. But Repuglicans have an uncanny ability to transform from the rabid, goose-stepping hate mongers they have to be to win a primary (and become once again if elected), to gentle soft spoken moderates for the general election.

DC, I'm not running (except away). However the year Bush I ran against Dukakis, I voted for my cat. Sadly, the cat lost.